Zillow Now Forecasts 1.1% Home Value Growth Through September 2027

Zillow now expects U.S. home values to rise 1.1% between September 2026 and September 2027, according to Zillow's latest home value forecast, which is built on September 2026 data. That is a modest call, but it is an upgrade from the summer, when Zillow's 12-month outlooks hovered between slightly negative and flat. The forecast also expects values to rise 0.3% from September through December 2026.

A national number near 1% hides a split country. In Zillow's latest metro forecasts, 110 of the 894 metro areas with a forecast are expected to lose value over the next 12 months, concentrated in Florida, Texas and parts of the Southwest, while many Midwest and Northeast markets are expected to post gains of 3% to 5% or more. Below is what the forecast says, how it has shifted during 2026, how forecasts like this are built and how close Zillow's recent calls have come.

How the 12-month outlook has moved in 2026

Zillow revises its home value forecast every month as new listing, sales and price data arrive. The 2026 path shows how quickly the outlook can swing.

The spring and early-summer downgrades came as sales stalled and inventory rose. The latest forecast lands close to where the year began, even though mortgage rates moved higher in the fall. Zillow has not published a detailed explanation, but each forecast starts from the latest index level, and Zillow's seasonally adjusted index edged up from June to September 2026 after slipping in late spring.

Where values are forecast to fall

Of the 50 largest metro areas, 49 have a published forecast, and 16 of those are negative. The weakest large markets are in the Sun Belt, where for-sale inventory has climbed and buyers have gained leverage.

• Austin, Texas: -2.4%
• Phoenix: -1.8%
• Tampa, Florida: -1.7%
• Las Vegas: -1.5%
• San Antonio: -1.3%
• Atlanta and New Orleans: -1.0% each
• Dallas: -0.9%

Florida stands out. Of the 29 Florida metros in Zillow's forecast, 20 are expected to decline. Among the 300 largest U.S. metros, the steepest projected drop belongs to Cape Coral, at -3.6%, followed by Ocala at -2.3%, North Port at -1.9%, Punta Gorda at -1.8%, and Naples and Port St. Lucie at -1.6% each. The retirement hub of The Villages is forecast at -1.4%. Miami, by contrast, is forecast to gain 0.7%.

Austin's figure shows how much these metro calls move. In Zillow's forecast published in July 2026, Austin was projected to fall about 6.4% over 12 months. The current -2.4% is still among the weakest large-metro forecasts, but it is far milder.

Where values are forecast to rise

The strongest forecasts sit mostly in smaller and mid-sized markets of the Midwest and upstate New York, where home prices start from a lower base. Among the 300 largest metros, Abilene, Texas leads at 5.9%, followed by Wausau, Wisconsin at 5.7%, with Syracuse, New York; Green Bay, Wisconsin; Rockford, Illinois; and Saginaw, Michigan all forecast near 5%. Among the 50 largest metros, Cleveland (3.7%), Milwaukee (3.5%), Hartford (3.3%), Cincinnati (3.0%) and New York (2.8%) lead.

That regional split mirrors what government data already shows. The Federal Housing Finance Agency's House Price Index report for July 2026 found prices up 2.6% nationally over 12 months, with the Middle Atlantic division up 6.3% and the Mountain division, which includes Nevada, Arizona and Colorado, up just 0.6%.

How a home value forecast is built

Zillow's forecast predicts the future path of its own Zillow Home Value Index, which tracks the typical value of homes in the middle third of a market, using Zillow's property-level value estimates. The forecast targets the smoothed, seasonally adjusted version of the index, so it describes the underlying trend rather than normal seasonal swings. Zillow has described the forecast as based on what is happening with listings and sales, along with broader economic conditions.

Forecasts of this kind generally lean on a few kinds of signals:

1. Recent momentum. Prices tend to keep moving in the direction they have been moving for several months.
2. Supply and demand pressure. Rising inventory, longer days on market and more price cuts point to softer prices ahead; tight inventory points the other way.
3. Economic inputs. Mortgage rates, incomes and employment shape how much buyers can pay.

Two limits follow from that design. A model fed by recent trends tends to be slow to spot turning points, and it cannot anticipate a sudden change in mortgage rates. Different index designs also give different readings: FHFA's index uses a repeat-sales method on purchase loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which is one reason its 2.6% annual gain for July 2026 runs ahead of Zillow's roughly 1% national change.

How accurate Zillow's recent forecasts have been

The fairest test compares each forecast with what Zillow's own index later recorded. Measured on the current seasonally adjusted index, the two spring 2025 forecasts missed by 1.5 to 2.1 points and called the wrong direction, while the late-2025 forecasts are running somewhat ahead of actual results.

The pattern is useful. When the national forecast sits within a point or two of zero, normal forecast error is large enough to flip the sign, so a "decline" call and a "flat" result can both be reasonable outcomes. The 2025 forecasts were too pessimistic; the late-2025 forecasts look somewhat too optimistic so far. Index values are also revised as new data arrive, so these results can shift slightly.

How buyers and owners can use a forecast

• Treat it as a direction and a range, not a price target. A 1.1% national forecast is consistent with values anywhere from slightly down to a few points up.
• Use the local number, then check local data. Metro forecasts differ by several points, and conditions inside a metro vary again by price tier and neighborhood. Recent sales, inventory and days on market in a specific area are better guides than any national call.
• Watch the inputs. A drop in mortgage rates or a sudden rise in listings would change the next forecast quickly. Many longtime owners are also choosing to stay put, a trend covered in the site's look at why many retirees aren't downsizing, which keeps supply tight in some markets.
• Do not time a move on a fraction of a percent. For a household planning to stay five years or more, the payment, the home and the location matter more than a forecast inside the error band.

Zillow revises the forecast monthly, so the next update will reflect October 2026 data. Readers tracking the Southern Nevada market, where the Las Vegas metro forecast is -1.5%, can follow local listings at Homes For Sale In Mesquite Nevada.