Zillow's September 2026 Data: Buyers Pull Back as Pending Sales Fall 8.5%

Newly pending home sales fell 8.5% from a year earlier in September 2026, according to Zillow's September 2026 market report, released October 6, 2026. Contracts were also down 11.2% from August, a sharper monthly drop than the usual end-of-summer slowdown. Zillow tied the pullback to mortgage rates, which closed September at their highest level since November 2023.

The report is a demand story more than a price story. Home values barely moved, inventory kept edging up, and the share of sellers cutting prices rose. Buyers simply signed fewer contracts. Below is what Zillow measured, how it lines up with the government and trade-group data released in October, and what the numbers mean for people buying or selling this fall.

The September 2026 numbers at a glance

Zillow calculates the mortgage payment on the typical home with 20% down, excluding taxes and insurance. The sales count is a preliminary estimate that Zillow revises later in the month.

Demand: buyers signed fewer contracts

Newly pending sales are the most current read on buyer behavior, because they count contracts signed during the month rather than deals that closed weeks later. An 8.5% annual decline, paired with an 11.2% monthly drop, shows buyers stepping back as borrowing costs climbed through September.

The rate backdrop explains most of it. Zillow noted that rates ended September at 7.28%, using Freddie Mac's weekly survey. The climb continued into October: Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% in mid-October before an easing to 7.32% for the week of October 22, 2026. A year earlier, the same survey showed 6.19%.

That gap between 6.19% and 7.32% does more damage than the 1% change in home values. Zillow estimated that a median-income household would spend 34.3% of its income on the typical mortgage payment in September 2026, up from 33.7% a year earlier. Renting the typical home took 26.3% of income. Mischa Fisher, Zillow's chief economist, said buyers on the margins are finding the monthly savings from renting "too good to pass up," and he added that Zillow expects sales to stay below last year's pace through the fourth quarter.

Rents moved the other way

The rental side of the same report ran hotter. The typical U.S. rent reached $1,932 in September 2026, up 2.7% from a year earlier, the largest annual gain since April 2025. Concessions remained common, with 39.6% of rental listings offering one. A rising rent bill can eventually push renters back toward buying, but in September the payment gap still favored renting for many households.

Supply: more choice, but listings are not flooding in

Total for-sale inventory rose 2.5% from a year earlier, which Zillow said was the 34th consecutive month of annual gains. The increase is modest, and it partly reflects homes sitting longer rather than a surge of new sellers. New listings were up only 0.4% from September 2025 and remain 11.9% below Zillow's pre-pandemic baseline.

Many owners with low-rate mortgages have little reason to sell into a 7% market, so supply is building slowly from the homes already listed. That pattern matters for both sides: buyers see more options than in 2021 or 2022, but not a wave of motivated sellers.

Prices: flat nationally, with signs of softening

The typical home value of $366,913 was 1.0% higher than a year earlier and 0.5% lower than in August 2026. A half-point monthly dip in the fall is not unusual, since Zillow's headline index is not seasonally adjusted. The more telling signals are on the listing side. Homes took a median 29 days to go pending, two days longer than in September 2025, and 27.4% of listings carried a price cut, up from 26.2% a year earlier.

Results varied widely by metro. Among the large markets in Zillow's table, home values were down 3.9% from a year earlier in Austin, down 2.2% in Seattle and down 1.9% in Dallas, while San Francisco posted a 3.7% gain. Seattle's inventory was up 20.3% from a year earlier, while Miami's was down 13.9%.

How the other September 2026 data lines up

Zillow's numbers are estimates built from its own listing and sales data, so it helps to check them against independent sources released the same month. The broad picture holds up.

• Existing-home sales: The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million, still 2.2% below a year earlier. Closings in September largely reflect contracts signed in July and August, before rates peaked, which is why closed sales and newly pending sales can point in different directions in the same month.
• Prices and supply: NAR's median existing-home price was $417,500, up 1.3% from a year earlier. Inventory reached 1.60 million homes, a 4.8-month supply, up from 4.5 months a year earlier. Median time on market was 33 days.
• New construction: The Census Bureau and HUD's new residential construction report for September 2026 put housing starts at a 1,221,000 annual rate, 7.4% below September 2025, and completions 14.0% below a year earlier. The Census Bureau notes that the monthly starts change was not statistically significant, so one month is not a trend.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said higher inventory and longer days on market "give buyers improved negotiating power," a point that matches Zillow's rising price-cut share.

What the September data means for buyers and sellers

For buyers

• Negotiation room is real but uneven. More than a quarter of listings have already cut their price, and homes are taking longer to go under contract. Asking for seller-paid closing costs or a rate buydown is more realistic than it was a year ago.
• The payment matters more than the price. With rates above 7%, a small price reduction does less than a lower rate. Buyers comparing options can review the site's mortgage rate outlook for late 2026 before locking.
• Local data beats national data. A 1% national change hides metros where values are falling and others where they are still rising.

For sellers

• Price for the current buyer pool. Fewer contracts mean overpriced homes sit, and a later price cut often costs more than a realistic list price at launch.
• Expect a longer timeline. A median of 29 days to pending nationally, and longer in slower metros, should shape moving plans and any contingent purchase.
• Condition and presentation carry more weight when buyers have more listings to compare.

What to watch next

Zillow scheduled its October 2026 market report for November 5. NAR's next existing-home sales report and the Census Bureau's October construction data, due November 18, will show whether the September contract slump carried into closings and building activity. The direction of mortgage rates over the next several weeks is the variable most likely to change the picture, since Zillow's economist noted that rates could fall as quickly as they rose. Readers following conditions in Southern Nevada can find current listings and local market pages at Homes For Sale In Mesquite Nevada.